(MAR 26) Marlen Esparza
(52kg), Katie Taylor (60kg) and Claressa Shields (75kg) will
strike Olympic Gold in Rio in August 2016!
Apologies Nicola Adams MBE but you won’t even be representing
G.B – Lisa Whiteside will take your place and collect Bronze in
the Flyweight division.
No, your correspondent has not
been consulting ‘Mystic Meg’ nor astrological charts! Nor has he
been having too much wine or Guinness!
Here at WBAN we really do appreciate how difficult it is to win
an Olympic Gold in any sport, and in boxing possibly more
difficult than in most.
So who IS predicting the outcome?
Well that is the ‘informed’ opinion of leading Dutch- and
internationally renowned - statistical and forecasting experts
INFOSTRADA, based on ‘current’ data.
The good news though for the United States and especially Team
USA is that the Americans will become the top sporting Nation in
Rio with more Gold medals than any other country.
United States are projected to top the medal table at Rio 2016
with 47 golds, at least 19 more than any other NOC. The
projected American total of 97 medals would also be the most in
Rio but would fall 7 short of the 104 the team managed in London
in 2012. Half of the medals expected to be won by the USA next
year look likely to come from either athletics or swimming.
Swimmers Missy Franklin and Katie Ledecky will probably join
gymnast Simone Biles as the most successful American competitors
in individual events at the 2016 Games and the Infostrada Sports
Virtual Medal Table expects American women to again be more
successful than their male counterparts.
Fifty-four of the 94 predicted medals and 28 of the 47 gold
medals are currently projected for the American women with the
aforementioned trio all currently in gold medal position in
multiple individual events. The only American male competitor
projected to do win more than one individual gold medal is
legendary swimmer Michael Phelps.
The influence of women on American Olympic success has grown
over the years with more than half of USA's medals being won by
women for the first time in 2012. The Virtual Medal Table's
opening projection suggests that this pattern will continue in
Rio.
Do remember though that few athletes from any nation have
actually qualified to take part in the Rio Games and even
defending champions like Adams, Taylor & Shields will need to
qualify through their sports “qualifying tournaments” inc the
2016 Women’s World Elite boxing champions, and that assumes that
they will gain their own country’s nomination . Remember too
that Infostrada’s data to date suggests that Adams will not be
in Rio, at least as a competitor. I’m sure that Nicola begs to
differ! Lisa Whiteside beware! A quandary for the GB selectors
that’s for sure.
For Ireland, can Taylor qualify and then take Gold again in Rio?
Well ‘if anyone can, Katie can’. The IABA’s High Performance
Coach Billy Walsh clearly has faith in her ability to do so
again as he explained to the ‘Irish Independent’ after the 2014
World Elite championships where she won Gold for the 5th time in
a row.
Walsh believes that her extraordinary work ethic has established
Taylor as the best, pound for pound, female boxer on the planet
and will sustain her all the way to Brazil.
"The fear of losing, of letting people down, of not bringing
back the gold medal is what drives her on" he explained. "She
could have filled the 3 Arena no problem had she turned Pro and
probably won a world title within five or six contests.
"But Katie probably only started getting the recognition she
deserved when she won the Olympic gold medal. She never put her
feet up after and said 'Happy days, I've made it!'
"So while opponents ARE improving, Katie keeps raising the bar.
She wants to be the best athlete that Ireland has ever
produced."
Canada’s 75kg Middleweight champ and world no.4, Ariane Fortin
is tipped to take bronze behind Claressa Shields. I’m sure that
will be of some comfort to Ariane and her teammates at Boxing
Canada but she will undoubtedly be even happier if she can
convert that bronze to at least silver and possibly Gold and she
does have a sporting chance, methinks. Nouchka Fontijn from the
Netherlands, the 3rd ranked middleweight is also tipped for
bronze.
Three Golds, two silver and a bronze for Russian male boxers but
none for their women – that would be a surprise. I find it hard
to believe that neither Ochigava nor Beliakova nor any of the
other great Russian women pugilists will be but spectators when
medals are being distributed. Same fate awaits those fine
Bulgarian women apparently, again I’d be surprised if they do
not get at least two medals.
France can ‘look’ to Estelle Mosselly for bronze at 60kg – a
realistic possibility - whilst at 60kg also, China’s Yin Junhua
is nominated as the other bronze medallist which leaves but the
silver at stake and that ‘goes’ to Azerbaijan’s Yana Allekseevna.
In other words an identical outcome to the 2014 Women’s world
elite final when again those on the podium were Taylor,
Allekseevna, Junhua and Mosselly.
On the subject of ‘host nation’ Infostrada Sports’ Virtual Medal
Table predicts Brazil will achieve its best ever medal tally in
Rio.
Having improved its performance at each of the last two Summer
Games, Brazil is expected to make further gains in 2016. In
Beijing and London the South American nation finished on 15 and
17 medals, respectively. Competing at a home Games in 2016,
Brazilian athletes are projected to claim 10 golds, 14 silver
and three bronze medals.
Achieving this would lead to an eighth place finish on the
overall medal table, ahead of historically strong Olympic
nations such as Japan, Hungary and Italy.
What of Great Britain? – Infostrada again:
Great Britain's haul of 65 medals at the London Games was their
best Olympic performance since they first hosted the competition
in 1908. The target this time is to become the first NOC ever to
improve on their performance as hosts at the subsequent Games.
Currently the Infostrada Sports Virtual Medal projection
suggests that the British are some way short of the 66 medals
required to do this.
Great Britain are projected to finish in seventh place in the
Rio medal table with 45 medals, a drop of 20 on four years
earlier but there may still be hope of challenging the 2012
total next year.
United States are projected to top the medal table at Rio 2016
with 47 golds, at least 19 more than any other NOC. The
projected American total of 97 medals would also be the most in
Rio but would fall 7 short of the 104 the team managed in London
in 2012. Half of the medals expected to be won by the USA next
year look likely to come from either athletics or swimming.
On August 4th 2016 – now less than 500 days away – the Opening
Ceremony of the XXX1 Summer Games will take place in Rio de
Janeiro.
Who are ‘Infostrada’?
A Dutch organisation, Infostrada Sports offers unique data,
media, analytic and event services to the world’s sports
industry.
They manage the world’s largest sports database, covering over
250 sports worldwide, historical and live.
Over the past 15 years, a central data platform has been
developed for sports results and biographical data on tens of
thousands of athletes.
Infostrada Sports’ clients include sports federations, national
Olympic committees, event organisers, rights agencies,
broadcasters, media publishers, brands and app developers.
You can find full information on Infostrada including link to
their “predicted’ final medals table here: